Partially because we're nerds, and partially because we needed a break from studying environmental assessment policy, we've compiled a spreadsheet of the results of Edmontonians votes in the 2004 federal election for your reading pleasure.
Here are the total Edmonton-wide results...
...and here are the results broken down by the eight Edmonton ridings.
We don't really have a point to prove, this is more for informational purposes.
What I find interesting is the relative paucity of strategic voting that went on in Ed. Centre and Beaumont. Comparing the NDP total in those ridings to the total in other ridings (Strathcona excluded), it doesn't seem like well-publicized close races between a Liberal and a Conservative prompt a lot of strategic votes, which quite frankly surprises me.
ReplyDeletesorry, McLellan...
ReplyDeleteGood points, Mark. But your assuming that the NDP vote wouldn't be higher in ridings like MWB and Centre if they didn't have high profile Liberal incumbents running. We can't speak for MWB, but we would predict that the NDP vote in Edmonton Centre would be larger if Anne McLennan weren't the incumbent.
ReplyDeleteI know of a lot of NDP-leaning Edmonton Centretonians would rather have a Liberal MP than a Conservative MP and hence support Anne McLellan.
The Edmonton Strathcona numbers are telling, while some would look at this as vote splitting between the NDP and Liberals, the NDP actually improved their numbers, far beyond what they had gotten in the last two Federal elections in the riding. Now they did have a high profile candidate, which is one reason. The other may have been the Liberals ran a hand picked Martinite, who had been a provincial MLA. Togther the NDP/Liberal numbers show that Rahim Jaffir gets in up the middle. But I see no urge to strategic voting here where it might actually make a difference. Though with a high profile NDP candidate this time, and a no name Liberal the numbers might change in favour of the NDP.
ReplyDeleteThe other two ridings to watch are Edmonton East total opposition numbers could defeat Goldring And they may coalace around the high profile NDP candidate there since the Liberals last time ran a high profile candidate, but this time its no-name brand.
And Beaumont-Mill Woods could go strongly Liberal as they have the only Indo-Canadian candidate running, the Conservatives ran Uppal last time and seriously challenged Kilgour with the South Asian vote, this time the Conservatives are running a no name White Guy....big mistake.....
Yep four ridings to be watched in Redmonton this time around. Place your wagers gentlemen.
Predicted Electoral Outcome:
ReplyDeleteTotal and complete victory for all Conservative candidates in the Edmonton region.
What did you think I would say ;-)