Early poll-by-poll results from the by-election are showing some interesting results...
With 18 out of 66 polls reporting:
Paul Hinman, Wildrose Alliance: 816 votes
Avalon Roberts, Liberal: 698 votes
Diane Colley-Urquhart, PC: 649 votes
Eric Carpendale, NDP: 43 votes
Len Skowronski, SC: 21 votes
Tony Grochowski, Ind: 20 votes
Update:
With 56/66 polls reporting:
Paul Hinman, Wildrose Alliance: 3,261 votes
Avalon Roberts, Liberal: 2,986 votes
Diane Colley-Urquhart, PC: 2,219 votes
Eric Carpendale, NDP: 121 votes
Len Skowronski, SC: 95 votes
Tony Grochowski, Ind: 59 votes
The daveberta.ca decision desk is calling it a victory for Paul Hinman.
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PC - 3rd place?
ReplyDeleteThat'll learn 'em
Looks like turnout will be around 37% or so.
ReplyDeleteWow, talk about egg on face for Team Stelmach...
ReplyDeleteHaha...poor Liberals. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Boo Hoo
ReplyDeleteIt looks like it is still close but in fact it is over. Polls leading/won are 28 for Hinman, with 17 for Roberts and 12 for DCU with only 9 polls yet to report.
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to see how Stelmach ignores this one.
ReplyDeleteHe'll probably go into hiding . . . Oh wait . . . Did I say go?
Hmmm, looks like the NDP votes added onto the Liberal votes would not have generated a win for the Liberals. There goes the DRP's arguments.
ReplyDeleteAnyone have any thoughts on the chances of Boutilier joining with Hinman to form an official caucus? Especially if Danielle Smith wins the WRAP leadership. Just a thought.
"Sure glad I hitched my wagon to Ed Stelmach's star"
ReplyDelete- Diane Colley-Urquhart (2 minutes ago)
The only question mark for me is the advance vote, which is not yet counted -- if one particular party had a stronger-than-usual early vote campaign, that could shake things up a little. But, yeah, looking great for Hinman otherwise -- wow.
ReplyDeleteThat the Tories are sitting at 25% (!) after running the candidate with the strongest electoral resume is a pretty major embarrassment for Stelmach.
Hmmm, looks like the NDP votes added onto the Liberal votes would not have generated a win for the Liberals. There goes the DRP's arguments.
ReplyDeleteUh... not that I'm affiliated with the DRP at all, but judging their entire arguments against the result of a single Calgary by-election (where the NDP is more often than not a non-factor anyway) is not what I would call a fair or reasonable evaluation. Disingenuous is what I'd call it.
That upcoming Leadership Review has got to be terrifying Ed.
ReplyDeleteI can become an MLA if I get 3500 people to vote for me. Doesn't seem that hard.
ReplyDeleteyou need more than 2 seats to be an official caucus. I think you need like 4. NDs are only official because the house decided that it was only fair. I really doubt they would do the same for a boutilier/hinman caucus...
ReplyDeleteThe only matter of real suspense right now is will the P"C" party manage to pull HALF of the vote percentage they did in their landslide win just last year.
ReplyDeleteAdvance poll still needs to come in. I don't think it's a given, if you assume the Libs had a better ground game and got out their advance vote.
ReplyDeleteBut, yeah, either way, Wildrose Alliance is the real winner here. Stelmach should be very, very, worried.
@James L
ReplyDeleteThe DRP's arguments for an alliance or for the most part based on just a few ridings in single elections. My argument is as solid as the DRPs.
@Anonymous @9:31
Yes, but the Tory's have set a precedent. It would only be fair for them to allow a two seat WAP caucus to have the same funding.
The DRP was wrong. There is no vote splitting. The NDP just sucks.
ReplyDeleteAlbertans are safe as long as the socialist NDP have as little support as the Social Credit Party.
ReplyDeleteNot to say we told you so... but... looks like Jonathan Denis, Calgary Egmont PC MLA, is buying the Alberta Report a round of lattes cuz of the Hinman victory...
ReplyDeletehttp://thealbertareport.blogspot.com
The Calgary Herald says the Liberal camp has conceded. It was a pleasure to campaign against you Libs! A true battle. And to all the also-rans, thanks for coming out!
ReplyDeleteIt is a great day for WRA and for Paul.He worked hard for this and deserves it at oppose to DCU who just expected it. Interesting comments regarding Boutilier.Paul went so far as to form the word" Boutilierized" refering to PC MLA's who dont tow the party line.This I think resinated with voters and did as Paul suggested "Sent Stelmach a message".Ron Stevens must be glad to have left when he did.I hope Boutilier does consider joining us.He certainly has support from his community.
ReplyDeleteThe clear message here is that the PC party needs to move further to the right.
ReplyDeleteThe PC party has been hijacked by Liberals and "Progressives" (ala Mr. Chapman) for some time now. Actually, it helps explain why the Liberal Party in Alberta is so weak. These same people now argue that the PC's should respond to the WRAP by moving further left! That's actually a-okay, since small "c" conservatives and libertarians have found a new home.
ReplyDeleteStelmach should promote Ted Morton Deputy Premier.
ReplyDeletePrecedents don't matter to the Tories. And they didn't give the NDP party status because they thought it was fair. If it were about fairness, they could change the rules - but they don't. They do this to weaken the Libs. Klein in particular used to pump up the NDP at Liberal expense. This says both that Libs are a marginally bigger threat and that they have confidence in the ability of 2 NDP MLAs to outshine 9 Libs. And they do.
ReplyDeleteBut if Boutilier were to join the WRA, it would be interesting to see how the Tories handle it. It will also be fascinating how the Libs under Swann handle it. A Boutilier/Hinman caucus would get all the attention...and, like Oberg, Boutilier knows where the skeletons are buried! Boutilier is a goofball who can barely string a coherent sentence together but they could still do some real damage -- further evidence how stupid it was for Stelmach to have kicked him out so unceremoniously, seemingly with no hope of return. He lost all leverage, turned him into a martyr for democracy and seniors, and gave him nothing to lose. Amateur hour in Ed's inner circle if you ask me.
But overall, well done to the WRAP team. Libs must be disappointed. It'll be interesting to see if, in 2 years or so, it turns out this was more than a protest vote in a by-election and whether in the intervening period the PCs can pull the rug out from under the WRAP without entirely alienating centrists.
Soooo, Colley-Urquhart says she's been PC all her life, like "any normal Albertan." Pretty presumptuous, I'd say. Hopefully, we are heading towards a new normal, where PC candidates finish a distant third. Ed, are you watching? This is about health care, and democracy.....and a whole bunch of other things. Bill 50 comes to mind.
ReplyDelete