canada's 2008 federal election: 365 days later.

One year ago today, just over 50% of Albertans made their way to the polls to vote in the 2008 Canadian Federal Election. While just over two years since the previous election, last October saw some Edmontonians (and Strathconans) paint their electoral map with a little more diversity of colours (even if it only resulted in one actual change in electoral representation). A year out, here is a look at some of the more interesting ridings from 2008 and what the electoral races may shape up to look like in the next election.

Edmonton-Centre

2008 results
Laurie Hawn, C - 22,634 (49%)
Jim Wachowich, Lib - 12,661 (27.4%)
Donna Martyn, NDP - 6,912 (15%)
David Parker, G - 3,746 (8.1%)
Peggy Morton, ML - 203 (0.4%)

I expected closer results in this riding during the last election, but if only one thing were clear about the 2008 election, it is that the Liberals under Stephane Dion had zero momentum in western Canada. After narrowly defeating Liberal MP Anne McLellan in 2006, a low voter turnout allowed Conservative Laurie Hawn to widen his margin of victory into a comfortable lead in 2008 when facing off against consumer advocate and Liberal candidate Jim Wachowich (the total voter turnout dropped by over eleven thousand votes and over 9,000 Liberal voters stayed home, dropping that party's support by over 9,000 votes between 2006 and 2008).

This riding has been the focus of both Reform/Canadian Alliance/Conservative and Liberal resources since 1993 and the prospect of three strong candidates in the next election could make this Edmonton riding a centre of attention once again. Hawn is a strong campaigner, but he is now facing two hard working challengers who have already began campaigning door-to-door. Liberal Mary MacDonald is a lawyer, Ph.D., former Deputy Chief of Staff to McLellan, and former provincial Liberal candidate. New Democrat Lewis Cardinal is an educator, activist, and former candidate for City Council. Some people will inevitably bemoan the potential for vote-splitting between the two main challengers, but I am looking forward to watching three strong candidates make this riding competitive in the next election. If Edmonton-Centre becomes home to a serious three-way race, I would wager that anything could happen.

Edmonton-East

2008 results
Peter Goldring, C - 21,487 (51.3%)
Ray Martin, NDP - 13,318 (31.8%)
Stephanie Laskoski, Lib - 4,578 (10.9%)
Trey Capnerhurst, G 2,488 (5.9%)

This riding could be one to watch in the next election. With the collapse of the Liberal-vote in 2008 (likely caused by the previously mentioned Dion-factor and the last minute withdrawal of candidate Jim Jacuta), former MLA Ray Martin was able to capitalize and boost the NDP vote by 13% to a solid second place finish. The riding has been represented by MP Peter Goldring since 1997, but the eclectic collection of citizens in this riding supported NDP MP Ross Harvey in 1988 and Liberal MP Judy Bethel in 1993.

Although Goldring has perfected the art of invisibility as a backbench MP, he still hold an incumbency advantage and I wouldn't underestimate Martin, who has once again been nominated as the NDP candidate in the next election. A seasoned elections veteran, Martin's political drive has led him to be elected the MLA for Edmonton-Norwood from 1982 to 1993, Edmonton Public Schools Trustee from 2001 to 2004, MLA for Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview from 2004 to 2008, and Leader of Alberta's Official Opposition from 1986 to 1993. I have also heard that along with Edmonton-Strathcona, the NDP are planning to focus much of their resources on this riding, which was their second strongest Alberta finish in 2008.

Edmonton-Sherwood Park

2008 results
Tim Uppal, C - 17,628 (35.8%)
James Ford, Ind - 15,960 (32.4%)
Brian LaBelle, NDP - 6,339 (12.8%)
Rick Szostak, Lib - 5,575 (11.3%)
Nina Erfani, G - 3,678 (7.4%)

In 2008, Independent conservative James Ford rode a strong wave of Strathcona County-concentrated discontent after a shady Conservative nomination process chose former Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont candidate Tim Uppal over local favorite Jacquie Fenske.

Ford's strength led this riding to the second closest results in the province, but I wonder whether a second run by Ford would result in the same level of discontent. This has been a strong conservative riding and includes areas that are represented on a provincial level by Premier Ed Stelmach and Finance Minister Iris Evans. If the voters in this riding are now less offended by the internal party shenanigans than they were a year ago, I would imagine that they will return to a traditional Conservative voting pattern.

Edmonton-Strathcona

2008 results
Linda Duncan, NDP - 20,103 (42.5%)
Rahim Jaffer, Con - 19,640 (41.6%)
Claudette Roy, Lib - 4,279 (9%)
Jane Thrall, Grn - 3,040 (6.4%)
Kevan Hunter, ML - 147 (0.3%)

A year ago today, NDP candidate Linda Duncan edged out long-time Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer in a close election race. Initially planning a comeback, Jaffer is now dealing with some personal issues in Ontario and the Conservatives have nominated Ottawa insider Ryan Hastman as their standard bearer. Both candidates and their teams have been busy canvassing door-to-door over the summer months in this extremely geo-politically polarized riding (as you can see by the poll results from the map above).

Since the last election, a number of people have noted to me that Duncan has become somewhat of a ghost in Edmonton. I will give Duncan the benifit of a doubt that she is still mounting the learning curve that all elected officials face during their first couple years in office, but I am sure that Hastman's campaign will focus on this point.

Expect a flood of resources and high-profile MP visits to the riding from both the NDP and Conservatives to continue before the next election (NDP leader Jack Layton has visited this riding at least 4-5 times since October 2008). The collapse of the Liberal vote helped vault Duncan to her victory, but it shouldn't be underestimated how strong her organization and her campaign momentum were in the last election. If she is successful in her next election, she will be the first NDP MP to be re-elected in Alberta's history. The Liberals have yet to announce a candidate in this riding, but Michael Ignatieff spent the Canada Day long weekend in the riding.

(Thanks to Jordan C. for the map)

notes from the alberta ndp convention.

After spending one evening this week at the Wildrose Alliance leadership forum, I've spent a good part of this weekend at the other end of the political spectrum as a media observer at the 43rd annual Alberta NDP convention in Edmonton. I will post some more detailed thoughts soon, but until then, here are some notes from the convention:

- Nova Scotia NDP campaign manager Matt Hebb spoke on Friday evening about the electoral situation that led to the current NDP majority government led by Premier Darrell Dexter. I took some notes from Hebb's talk and will include my thoughts in a future post.

- The Democratic Renewal Project has made their presence known at the convention. A policy resolution directing the party leader to initiative public negotiations with the leaders of the Alberta Liberals and Green Party to conclude a tactical electoral alliance has proposed by the Edmonton-Rutherford and Edmonton-Whitemud NDP Associations. It will be debated on Sunday morning and will likely be defeated.

- Leader Brian Mason took a direct shot at the DRP in his Saturday afternoon speech to delegates by challenging the assumption that vote splitting is not the reason the NDP does not have more MLAs in the Legislature. Mason announced intentions for the NDP to run a full slate of candidates and a plan to target resources on 12 ridings between now and the next election.

- Mason also announced the NDPs plans to hold a number of health care forums across Alberta starting on September 29 in Calgary and September 30 in Lethbridge. Other forums are expected to be held in Edmonton, Grande Prairie, and Fort McMurray.

- Edmonton-Strathcona MP Linda Duncan spoke about NGOs, the environment, and partisan politics at the Olga Blogheim luncheon this afternoon. Attendees included Mason, MLA Rachel Notley, former MLA David Eggen, federal candidate Lewis Cardinal, and provincial candidate Deron Bilous.

- According to delegates I've spoken to (and blogs I've read) there seems to be little movement behind a twitter account and blog supporting Notley to become NDP leader.

dunn's done. now... more than ever.

Dunn's done. Auditor General Fred Dunn has announced that he will be stepping down in February 2010.

In 2007, Dunn singled out Energy Minister Mel Knight and the Department of Energy for failing to collect billions of dollars in resource revenues over the past 15 years. In 2009, Dunn's office announced the delay or cancellation of 27 out of 80 planned system and financial audits due to lack of financial resources. At the time, Calgary-Egmont MLA Jonathan Denis was quoted as justifing the lack of funding to the Auditor General by defending the one-year MLA pay freeze:

"Realistically everybody would like more money, I would like more money, but the reality is we froze our pay cheques this year. This is the first time in 15 years we froze our pay cheques. And similarly we don’t want to be giving extra money to departments where that’s not required.”

Now... more than ever. His ideas may now be marginalized within the party he led to office 38 years ago, but the now Stelmach-led PC Party is seeking to revive fond memories of Peter Lougheed's victory over Harry Strom's Social Credit Party. The slogan for the November 6-7, 2009 PC leadership review, 'Now... more than ever,' appears to be an attempt to remind older supporters of their party's exciting 1971 slogan: 'Now!' Or maybe I'm wrong and the PCs are actually trying to channel Richard Nixon....


Who's ready for a federal election? With the exception voters in a couple of ridings, Albertans are going to be far off the political radar in any upcoming federal election. While the Conservatives have already nominated candidates in all 28 ridings, the Liberals and NDP have only officially nominated a couple candidates each (Liberals: Jennifer Pollock in Calgary-West, Mary MacDonald in Edmonton-Centre, Rick Szostak in Edmonton-Sherwood Park. NDP: Lewis Cardinal in Edmonton-Centre and Ray Martin in Edmonton-East). With an election seemingly imminent, expect to hear a lot from the New Obama Party when they hold their caucus retreat in Edmonton in a couple of weeks.

global youth assembly 2009 ignites edmonton.

It's been an exciting couple of weeks for north central Edmonton. City Council voted for the phased closure of the Edmonton City Centre Airport twenty days ago, the Edmonton Indy was held last weekend, and starting tomorrow morning on the NAIT campus over 500 delegates will converge at the Global Youth Assembly 2009 presented by the John Humphrey Centre.

I'm not able to attend the entire conference, but I will be there to hear former Foreign Affairs Minister and current President of the University of Winnipeg Lloyd Axworthy speak tomorrow morning on the topic of 'Global Community & Citizenship: Building Responsibility.' I'm very interested to hear what he has to say, especially in regards to the Canadian Armed Forces current involvement in Afghanistan.

In an event open to the public, Governor General Michaëlle Jean will be hosting a Friday evening 'hip hop' dialogue with conference delegates. Also on Friday, a panel discussion on apathy and political engagement will include local notables Councillor Don Iveson and federal election candidate Lewis Cardinal.

A couple of weeks ago, I was invited by the conference organizers to write a guest post on their blog and it's now been posted, so feel free to to peruse over and check it out. I'm not sure how often their blog will be updated during the conference, but you can follow #gya09 on twitter for instant updates from delegates.

liberal & ndp nominations in edmonton-centre and edmonton-east.

Three federal candidate nominations have been scheduled in Edmonton for the last week of July. It looks like they will all end up in acclamation.

Edmonton-Centre Liberal nomination meeting
July 27, Westmount Community Hall
(I will post the time when I get confirmation)
Candidate: Mary MacDonald

Edmonton-Centre/Edmonton-East NDP joint nomination meeting
July 28, Alberta Avenue Community Centre, 6:30pm
Candidates:
Edmonton-Centre: Lewis Cardinal
Edmonton-East: Ray Martin

former candidate jim wachowich speaks about edmonton-centre.

After reading a recent blog post by Ken Chapman, I took the opportunity to speak with former Edmonton-Centre Liberal candidate and consumer advocate lawyer Jim Wachowich over the phone yesterday. During the call, Wachowich confirmed the rumours that he will not be seeking the Liberal candidacy in Edmonton-Centre for the next election.

Wachowich explained that for personal, family, and professional reasons, it would have been difficult to dedicate the time and resources to run in an election that could occur at any time. Despite the legislated fixed-election date law in Canada, a minority Parliament and constant games of political brinkmanship in Ottawa have made snap elections a reality that potential candidates from all parties now face.

Following the June 30 Town Hall meeting that drew over 600 Edmontonians, Wachowich said he was excited about a renewed energy that Michael Ignatieff’s leadership has brought to the Liberal Party of Canada.

Describing the challenges facing the Edmonton-Centre Liberals, Wachowich suggested that “fatigue and political disinterest” as well as doubt about Stephane Dion's leadership and the Green Shift created difficult challenges for his campaign during the last election. The Liberals have always faced uphill battles in electing Members of Parliament in Alberta, but Wachowich pointed out “there is a strong base of Liberal support in Edmonton-Centre.” He plans to support whoever is nominated as the Liberal candidate (the first candidate openly campaigning for the nomination is Lawyer, Political Science Ph.D., and Anne McLellan's former Deputy Chief of Staff Mary MacDonald).

When asked how the entry of NDP nomination candidate Lewis Cardinal could affect the race, Wachowich said he believed that Cardinal’s candidacy “would make the race all the more interesting” and that having good candidates from all parties could increase the voter interest and turnout in the next election. Voter turnout in Edmonton-Centre dropped from 64% in 2006 to just over 50% in 2008, which Wachowich speculated hurt his campaign on Election Day.

As our conversation wrapped up, Wachowich emphasized the need for stronger representation for the citizens of Edmonton-Centre in Ottawa, “I don’t know where [Conservative MP] Laurie Hawn stands, because he doesn’t tell you.”

just visiting (from ottawa) & royal glenora club gets economic stimulus.

Ottawa political staffer Ryan Hastman defeated Linda Blade and Cathay Wagantall to claim the Conservative candidacy in Edmonton-Strathcona. Hastman will face NDP MP Linda Duncan in the next federal election.

Also visiting Edmonton-Strathcona from Ottawa will be federal Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, who will spend the morning of Canada Day in the 20th annual Silly Summer Parade down Whyte Avenue. Last week, Vancouver-Centre Liberal MP Hedy Fry joined federal Liberal activists in Edmonton's Pride Parade.

Across the river in Edmonton-Centre, Lewis Cardinal will announce his announce his intentions to seek the NDP nomination this week (h/t @alexabboud). Cardinal was narrowly defeated (by 184 votes) in a tight race that saw Ward 4 Councillors Jane Batty and Ben Henderson elected in the 2007 Municipal Election. In the 2008 Federal Election, Edmonton-Centre NDP candidate Donna Martyn placed third with 15% of the total vote behind Conservative MP Laurie Hawn and Liberal Jim Wachowich.

How's this for an economic stimulus package? The members-only private Royal Glenora Club will be receiving $1,000,000 in taxpayers dollars from the federal government. Annual membership fees range from $ 2,236.00 for singles aged 30-64 to $4,065 for families. While MP Laurie Hawn defended the announcement, claiming that it "will ensure that this 50-year-old facility can continue to thrive...." it is not known whether he and his wife are active members of the Club (which would cost $2,403.00 annually for couples aged 64 and over).