suiting up for spring session #3: getting ready to celebrate 40 years.

For those of your looking forward to the beginning of Spring Session in the Alberta Legislature, here's a sneak peak at what awaits...

- In members statements, expect a member from the Tory caucus to make a statement in remembrance of the passing of former Moses and NRA head, Charlton Heston.

- Health Care Premiums will be gone in four years, starting... now?

- Speaking of Health Care, newly appointed Health Minister Ron Liepert says health care reforms he plans to bring in will be modeled on the Klein cuts of the 1990s.

- A Blue Ribbon committee is expected to be appointed to plan for the 40th Anniversary Celebrations of Progressive Conservative rule in Alberta in 2011. Expect plans to include the construction of a 50-foot statue of Ralph Klein overlooking the crossing of the Bow and Elbow Rivers in Calgary and military parades across the province...



- Land-use struggles! The fight by rural landowners continues! The Round Hill-Dodds Agriculture Protection Association is fighting to stop the construction of a new coal and gasification plant south of Tofield. Major investors in the project include the City of Edmonton-owned EPCOR and the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan.

give me a p-a-t-r-o-n-a-g-e!

For those who doubted the existence of the culture of entitlement and partisan patronage present under Alberta's 36-year Tory regime, I present Case #9731.

Edmonton... Edmonton lawyer and community volunteer Douglas Goss has been designated chair of the Northern Alberta Institute of Technology (NAIT)’s Board of Governors.

It just so happens that Doug Goss is also the co-chair of the Stelmach Tories' election campaign.

For more information on Tory political patronage in Alberta, click here, here, and here.

$19,000 payday for tory mla's.

The Edmonton Journal is reporting that Tory MLA's Cindy Ady and Barry McFarland received $19,000 for work on the Idaho-Alberta task force - a task force which only met once and has no recorded accomplishments.

No meeting minutes. No phone records. Not to mention no border between Alberta and Idaho.

A spokesperson from Premier Ed Stelmach's office:

admitted the task force didn't do much in the end, but they had good intentions and tried to set up meetings with their American counterparts. "Can I show you a report, an agreement, a memorandum, anything? No, I can't. It just isn't there," David Sands said.

John Nordstrom, with the Idaho Department of Commerce, referred to the group as the Idaho-Alberta Sister State Task Force.

He said the state politician who sat on the informal committee didn't receive any extra compensation.

"It was just part of their normal job. There wasn't any extra pay or any-thing."

alberta's royalty review.

Now that I've had a chance to take a look at the much talked about Alberta Royalty Review Panel Final Report, I have some thoughts to offer.

1. The report is much more damning than I think anyone thought it would be.

The report begins with the opening statement: "Albertans do not receive their fair share from energy development." The report proves this to be an understatement.

2. The report revealed that a lack of government accountability has led to billions of dollars in reduced royalty income over the last 15 years - the royalty holidays and adjustments have reduced Alberta's income by nearly $8.6 billion over the past 15 years.

Alberta Liberal Leader Kevin Taft and Shadow Energy Minister Hugh MacDonald pointed out that:

the government failed to report a four year royalty holiday period, which began in 1997, under former Minister of Energy Steve West. In 2001, the Auditor General questioned why the royalty holiday and incentive programs were not reported. The Auditor General started to report these amounts in his annual report. Since then, the Department of Energy has buried the amount of the royalty adjustments in their financial footnotes.

Here are Kevin Taft and Hugh MacDonald in their media conference following the release of the report:


3. Though some are rallying against the report, the same people don't seem to understand the difference between a royalty and a tax.

4. There is no doubt that the release of this report is a defining moment in Alberta's politics and the reaction or lack thereof by Ed Stelmach's Tories may define the main issue of the next provincial election.

5. In 2004, Federal Auditor General Sheila Fraser's report into the Sponsorship scandal revealed that up to $100 million of the $250 million sponsorship program was awarded to advertising firms and Crown corporations for little or no work.

In 2007, Alberta's Royalty Review Panel revealed that approximately $8.6 billion in natural resource royalties owed to Albertans were not collected. This failure occured while Ed Stelmach and Lyle Oberg were sitting at the table in Ralph Klein's Tory Cabinet.

Albertans have been cheated in a big way and should be furious.

ed stelmach and mel knight continue to fumble the aeub scandal.

Long title. Big deal.

Tory Premier Ed Stelmach and his Energy Minister Mel Knight continue to fumble in the face of the growing AEUB scandal. It looks as if Stelmach and Knight are pulling out every tool in the Tory tool chest in order to not deal with the scandal of the public AEUB hiring private investigators to spy on ordinary Albertans.

For the highlights, I'll defer to the brutal eloquence of Edmonton Journal columnist Graham Thomson...

Energy Minister Mel Knight did two things exceptionally well in his news conference at the legislature on Monday afternoon: he arrived on time and he didn't fall off the stage.

He did everything else remarkably badly.

At times Knight looked like he didn't know how to answer questions or was doing his best to avoid them. Sometimes he grew so testy with reporters it looked like he wanted to kick them. I suspect the reason he didn't was because at any given time he had a least one foot stuck firmly in his mouth.

Monday was supposed to be the day the Alberta government would demonstrate leadership on the EUB spying controversy that has plagued the government since news broke in June the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board hired a private investigator who had spied on landowners.

For weeks, the government has been hinting it was about to take decisive action to recover the EUB's reputation that has sunk so low you'd need a drilling rig to find it.

Instead, we had a minister of energy doing his best to downplay the biggest scandal to hit the government since Ed Stelmach became premier.

political patronage: alberta-style continued...

The Edmonton Journal continued it's two-part feature on political patronage in Progressive Conservative Alberta. Here is a second list that the Journal put together:

SOME PROMINENT TORIES WITH MULTIPLE APPOINTMENTS

- Audrey Luft, organizer of 2007 Alberta PC annual convention: Alberta Foundation for the Arts (chair), NAIT, Alberta Economic Development Authority

- Doug Goss, Edmonton co-chair of Tories' next election campaign: Capital Health, Alberta Economic Development Authority

- Wayne Jacques, former Conservative MLA: Peace Country Health Region, Transportation Safety Board, Law Enforcement Review Board

- Alf Savage, former PC president: Auto Insurance Rate Board (chair), Municipal Government Board

- Wendy Kinsella, losing Edmonton PC candidate in 2001: NorQuest College (chair), Capital Health (vice-chair)

- Marvin Moore, former PC campaign manager and cabinet minister: Peace Country Health (chair), Agriculture Marketing Products Council Appeal Tribunal

- Dale Johnson, president of Whitecourt-Ste. Anne PC association: Aspen Health, Credit Counselling Services of Alberta

- Robert Seidel, lawyer to former treasurer Stockwell Day: Grant MacEwan College, Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research

- Skip McDonald, former president of Klein's PC constituency association: Calgary Health, ATB Financial

UPDATE: Calgary-Nose Hill MLA Neil Brown says there's nothing wrong with these appointments.

political patronage: alberta-style.

Kudos to Darcy Henton and Jason Markusoff of the Edmonton Journal for writing a feature article on the deluge of political patronage currently present in Alberta. The Journal also went through and detailed a list of provincially appointed boards and their card carrying Progressive Conservative Party members.

Here are the top 40 boards with the highest percentages of card-carrying Conservatives serving on them.

Health boards and regions
- Peace Country Health Region: 13 Tories / 13-member board

- East Central Health: 9 Tories / 12-member board

- Capital Health: 8 Tories / 14-member board

- Calgary Health: 7 Tories / 13-member board

- Aspen Health Region: 11 Tories / 14-member board

- David Thompson Health: 11 Tories / 15-member board

- Chinook Health: 7 Tories / 12-member board

- Northern Lights Health: 7 Tories / 12-member board

- Palliser Health Region: 7 Tories / 13-member board

- Alberta Cancer Board: 5 Tories / 10-member board

- Health Quality Council: 4 Tories / 8-member board

- Public Health Appeal Board: 2 Tories / 4-member board

- Health Facilities Review Board: 8 Tories / 12-member board

Post-secondary Institutions

- Northern Alberta Institute of Technology: 8 Tories / 12-member board

- Portage College: 5 Tories / 7-member board

- Lethbridge College: 4 Tories / 7-member board

- Athabasca University: 6 Tories / 11-member board

- Red Deer College: 3 Tories / 6-member board

- Mount Royal College: 5 Tories / 10-member board

financial

- ATB Financial: 9 Tories / 13-member board

- Credit Union Deposit Guarantee Corp.: 4 Tories / 8-member board

addictions and disabilities

- Premier's Council on the Status of Persons with Disabilities: 5 Tories / 8-member board

- Alberta Alcohol and Drug Abuse Commission: 7 Tories / 10-member board

- Crystal Meth Task Force: 7 Tories / 12-member board

- Northwest Alberta Persons with Developmental Disabilities: 6 Tories / 7-member board

Agriculture

- Alberta Grain Commission: 8 Tories / 11-member board

- Agriculture Products Marketing Council: 7 Tories / 11-member board

- Alberta Agriculture Research Institute: 4 Tories / 7-member board

Other

- Seniors Advisory Council: 8 Tories / 10-member board

- Northern Alberta Development Council: 9 Tories / 10-member board

- Worker's Compensation Board: 3 Tories / 4-member board

- Alberta Foundation of the Arts: 6 Tories / 10-member board

- Alberta Gaming and Liquor Commission: 6 Tories / 7-member board

- Alberta Economic Development Authority: 29 Tories / 60-member board

- Alberta Order of Excellence Council: 6 Tories / 6-member board

- Social Care Facilities Review Commission: 7 Tories / 11-member board

- Alberta Science and Research Authority: 9 Tories / 19-member board

- Northeast PDD Board: 5 Tories / 7-member board

- Alberta Fatality Review Board: 3 Tories / 3-member board

- Rural Alberta's Development Fund: 6 Tories / 12-member board

Click here to see the list of the 100 provincially appointed Boards and Government agencies stacked with Tory appointees.

Tomorrow, the Edmonton Journal will be profiling the process which allows the Progressive Conservatives to commit this degree of political patronage.

UPDATE: Calgary-Nose Hill MLA Neil Brown says there's nothing wrong with these appointments.

the post-ed stelmach pc poll.

Here are the results from the most recent daveberta poll:

Who will be the next Leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party?

Selection		Votes
Craig Chandler	17%	39
Ray Danyluk	1%	3
Jim Dinning	9%	21
Dave Hancock	14%	33
Ted Morton	33%	75
Mark Norris	3%	7
Lyle Oberg	5%	12
Tom Olsen	17%	40
230 votes total

oh, craig...

This was in my inbox from a daveberta reader this morning. Thanks for the message...

Hey Dave, [Craig] Chandler keeps on giving - and he wrote some serious falsehoods in the herald today.

So, Chandler wrote an op-ed in the herald today, where he claimed to have written something different on his posting.

he claimed:

"To those of you who have come to our great land from out of province, you need to remember that you came here to our home and we vote conservative. You came here to enjoy our economy, our natural beauty and more. This is our home and if you wish to live here, you must adapt to our rules and our voting patterns, or leave. Conservatism is our culture. Do not destroy what we have created." - from Daveberta

was more like:

"To those of you who have come to our great land from out of province, you need to remember that you came here to our home and we vote conservative (meaning Social Credit, Alberta Alliance, Wildrose or the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party.)"

he also changed it on the forum posting:

Firstly, Alberta is growing in a way that was never expected and many of the people coming here do not truly appreciate Alberta or even understand the history of this province or the relationship with small 'c' conservatism. To those of you who have come to our great land from out of province, you need to remember that you came here to our home and we vote conservative (meaning Social Credit, Alberta Alliance, Wildrose or the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party). You came here to enjoy our economy, our natural beauty and more. This is our home and if you wish to live here, you must adapt to our rules and our voting patterns, or leave. Conservatism is our culture. Do not destroy what we have created.

The great part is the forum tracks edits to posts. The post is tagged at the end with:
"Last edited by Craig B. Chandler on Sun Sep 02, 2007 8:52 pm; edited 4 times in total."

Craig is being untrue about what he wrote in his forum post.

post-stelmach poll results.

The interim results are tallying up in what is quickly becoming to known as the unofficial 2008 Alberta PC leadership race.

Look on the sidebar to vote (early and often...):

Who will be the next leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party?

Selection Votes
Craig Chandler 22% (20 votes)
Ray Danyluk 1% (1 vote)
Jim Dinning 12% (11 votes)
Dave Hancock 13% (12 votes)
Ted Morton 28% (26 votes)
Mark Norris 2% (2 votes)
Lyle Oberg 8% (7 votes)
Tom Olsen 15% (14 votes)

93 votes total

mr. dithers: alberta edition.

Aren't you glad that Ed Stelmach is speaking for Alberta to the rest of Canada?

"Will there be people without homes? Yes. Will there be some sick people that we can't save, despite all the medical technology that we have? Yes, there will be. But people are continuing to move here because where else are they going to go in Canada?"

retirement row.

In what I expect to be a steady stream over the next few months, long-time Tory backbencher Richard Magnus joined the current as he announced that he won't be seeking a fifth term in office.

That brings the official MLA retirement list to eight:

Progressive Conservative MLAs
Victor Doerksen (Red Deer-South)
Clint Dunford (Lethbridge-West)
Carol Haley (Airdrie-Chestermere)
Denis Herard (Calgary-Egmont)
Rob Lougheed (Strathcona)
Richard Magnus (Calgary-North Hill)

Alberta Liberal MLA
Maurice Tougas (Edmonton-Meadowlark)

New Democrat MLA
Raj Pannu (Edmonton-Strathcona)

On the Tory retirements, comments are abound:

"A lot of MLAs see the writing on the wall that people are not happy with the party and the way it's run," says Jim Stevenson, who chaired Alberta Renewal, founded during last fall's leadership race in an effort to reconnect the party with its grassroots.

"There's so many things that need to be changed to bring some democracy back into the party and I don't see that happening."

...

David Taras, a political analyst at the University of Calgary, agrees a number of factors affect the decision whether to run again, but says Stelmach has to wear some of the responsibility.

"There are a lot of factors at work here and some are not the kind of factors the premier likes to talk about," he said. "Klein had enormous coat tails. With those coat tails gone, and the argument that Stelmach has very short coat tails, or none at all, could be a drag on some of these candidates.

"If you do the basic math, some of them could be in tough re-election battles and some could lose."

rick bell on 'kooky craig.'

Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell offers his thoughts on Progressive Conservative nomination candidate 'Kooky' Craig Chandler's recent comments that if new Albertans: "wish to live here, you must adapt to our rules and our voting patterns, or leave. Conservatism is our culture. Do not destroy what we have created."

UPDATE: CTV Calgary and the Globe and Mail have both run stories on Mr. Chandler's commments.

Ed Stelmach wouldn't refute Chandler's comments, but would only say that: “This province has welcomed newcomers and we will continue to welcome newcomers.”

Here is the YouTube video (linked from Glen):

craig chandler continued.

Craig Chandler officially announced his intentions to run for the Progressive Conservative nomination in Calgary-Egmont as five-term Tory MLA Denis Herard announced his retirement today.

Chandler recently wrote the bizarre and ridiculous webboard statement that if new Albertans "wish to live here, you must adapt to our rules and our voting patterns, or leave. Conservatism is our culture. Do not destroy what we have created.

Chandler's positions are somewhat confusing after you notice some pretty big contradictions between his campaign website and a media release sent out by his campaign today:

Media Release: "Some in our party have become complacent and think we have the natural right to govern because we are conservatives."

Website: "Craig Chandler is seeking the riding nomination for the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party. We all know that whoever wins the nomination will surely become your next MLA."

Yep, complacent.

I wonder if Ed Stelmach is starting to regret these best wishes...

Here is Chandler's media release as received by email (how many spelling errors can you spot?):

CRAIG CHANDLER SEEKING TORY NOMINATION FOR CALGARY EGMONT

(Calgary) Craig Chandler, Executive Director of the Progressive Group for Independent Business (PGIB) and a well known name in conservative political circles is seeking to become the MLA for the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party in Calgary Egmont. Craig Chandler has taken a leave of abscence from the the Progressive Group for Independent Business (PGIB)

"I feel that we need a strong Alberta a government where we put Alberta first. Some in our party have become complacent and think we have the natural right to govern because we are conservatives. I feel we need to get back to looking at the whites of people eyes on their doorsteps and find out first hand what we are doing well and where we need to improve. I will show up at the door of my constituents at least once a year to find out first hand their concerns. I will be an effective and articulate voice for Calgary Egmont and Calgary as a whole" said Craig Chandler.

The Craig Chandler campaign has been campaigning for over 3 months and has submited a very substantial amount of memberships to the party. Several communities have already been doorknocked and the campaign is working full time with volunteer and paid staff. Craig Chandler has also managed to unite many on the conservative right behind him. Link Byfield of the Wildrose Party has endorsed Craig Chandler. David Crutcher who received 1,657 votes for the Alberta Alliance in Calgary Egmont has joined the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party and is now serving as their President in Calgary Egmont.

"We are taking nothing for granted. We are working very hard and know that it takes a substantial amount of memberships and money to win the nomination. We will always be campaigning like we are 30 votes behind" said Harley Shouldice, Campaign Manager / Whip for the Craig Chandler Campaign.

- 30 -

For More Information contact Harley Shouldice or Craig Chandler at 203-3456

www.craigchandler.ca www.oneridingatatime.com

It also looks like Chandler's PGIB group is going to start hijacking Progressive Conservative nomination meeting through oneridingatatime.com.

if you move to alberta – adapt or leave: craig chandler.

Alberta PC nomination candidate Craig Chandler has eloquently declared his feelings towards new Albertans who choose to exercise their constitutional right to vote for a political party other than the 36-year old ruling Progressive Conservative Party of Ed Stelmach.

I wonder which point in Ed Stelmach’s five-priority plan Chander is promoting when he wrote this:

To those of you who have come to our great land from out of province, you need to remember that you came here to our home and we vote conservative. You came here to enjoy our economy, our natural beauty and more. This is our home and if you wish to live here, you must adapt to our rules and our voting patterns, or leave. Conservatism is our culture. Do not destroy what we have created.

Considering that Stelmach's Tories haven't been doing too well in Calgary lately, I wonder how excited Ed Stelmach will be with Craig Chandler carring the PC banner in Calgary Egmont?

I know I'm looking forward to the daily entertainment.

albertans going shopping.

A poll released today by Cameron Strategy Group shows Ed Stelmach’s Tories dropping 22 points in the past 7 months to 32% support across Alberta (down from 54% in January 2007).

The poll also shows Stelmach’s Calgary approval ratings dropping from 52% in January to 38% in August (his disapproval rating in Calgary is 40%). Stelmach has also dropped from a January high of 58% to an August 45% in Edmonton, and a 59% to 50% drop in the other regions of Alberta (his disapproval ratings in Edmonton and other Alberta regions are 39% and 26%).

But what is most interesting is the dramatic increase of undecided voters from 18% to 36% in 7 months (with 39% of Calgarians and 36% of Edmontonians falling in the unsure or won't vote category). From the report:

“The increase in undecided voters in the past 3 months in Alberta is unprecedented. A huge swath of the Alberta electorate is now without a firm voting intention, which means that dramatic changes in the electoral landscape are possible. The key question remains to be answered in the next 6 months is who will be successful in luring these newly undecided voters: the PC’s, who need to bring them back to the fold, or the Liberals, who have not yet shown signs of growth in voter support.”

Here are the regional breakdowns:

Provincial Voting Intentions (January support in brackets)
Province-wide
PC – 32% (54%)
Liberal – 16% (16%)
NDP – 11% (9%)
Alliance – 5% (3%)
Unsure/Won’t vote – 36% (18%)

Calgary
PC – 30% (59%)
Liberal – 17% (14%)
NDP – 8% (8%)
Alliance – 5% (2%)
Unsure/Won’t vote – 39% (16%)

Edmonton
PC – 27% (50%)
Liberal – 17% (16%)
NDP – 16% (12%)
Alliance – 5% (2%)
Unsure/Won’t vote – 36% (19%)

Other Alberta
PC – 41% (52%)
Liberal – 13% (18%)
NDP – 7% (6%)
Alliance – 7% (4%)
Unsure/Won’t vote – 31% (20%)

Another poll released by Cameron Strategy Group asked the question “Is the Stelmach Government Leading Alberta in the right direction?”

26% responded the 'right' direction, 30% responded the 'wrong' direction, and 44% were 'unsure.' When you compare these numbers to January 2007 when 54% responded ‘right,’ 10% responded ‘wrong,’ and 36% responded ‘undecided’ you can see a pretty substantial shift.

Though these numbers clearly don't benifit any specific political party, the growing undecided pool of voters leaking from the Tory support hints that a fall 2007 election may start to look more likely (before the S.S. Stelmach sinks any further).

It also means that the Liberals and Tories are going to have to put in extra effort to woo the growing undecided vote in the run up to the next election.

it's cozy in there.

If you haven't already, read Sheila Pratt's column from Sunday's Edmonton Journal. It's a great article that takes Ed Stelmach to task for hiring Suncor VP Heather Kennedy as an assistant deputy minister in the Tory Governments oilsands development secretariat. Pratt hits it right on the mark:

"This stinks so badly it makes the toxic lakes on the oilsands mines smell like garden ponds. The worst is that the government doesn't seem to get the potential conflicts staring it in the face.

Something about the fox and the henhouse quickly comes to mind when the job of coming up with public policy to best manage growth around the oilsands is handed over to a current oilpatch executive, even temporarily.

Would you hire agriculture biotech giant Monsanto, purveyor of GM seeds, to run the agriculture department's crop improvement program? Or hire Greenpeace to run the environment department? No, the captains of industry and active lobbyists have their own agendas and it's not always the public agenda.

...

The treasury department did consult the ethics commissioner about Kennedy's appointment, which is a signal it had a few qualms. Too bad Alberta's ethics report is off limits to the public -- even though it involved a public servant.

Maybe Stelmach doesn't understand the mood in post-Klein Alberta.

People voted for him -- and against Jim Dinning -- partly because they were unhappy about the cosy relationship between business and government, because they thought the oilpatch had too much influence and they wanted a change.

Well, now they've got the oilpatch in the senior civil service.

This controversy was totally unnecessary if the government had thought for one moment about it.

There's no lack of smart people in this province to do the jobs. But there's shortage of good political judgement in Stelmach's cabinet.

Kennedy's appointment comes on the heels of another business cozy controversy in Stelmach's Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville riding. The Fort Saskatchewan Chamber of Commerce attempted to organize a $300 per person fundraiser where half the funds would go to Stelmach's Constituency Association. The breaks were put on the fundraiser only after a frontpage story and editorial in the Sturgeon Creek Post called on the Chamber to halt its partisan hackery. Dave Truscott is the editor of the Sturgeon Creek Post:

"...there is a time and place for political support, and the Chamber of Commerce is not that place. As a long time member and support of the Chamber I must protest..."

"...to support a whole party or a candidate would be a mistake even if it were not against the bylaws. Governments and candidates come and go. The Chamber of Commerce represents something more enduring. It must be prepared to deal with whoever is in office."

"I have to add that there is also something very wrong with paying so high a fee to get the ear of our premier. This smacks very much of bribery..."

Chamber of Commerce by-laws are supposed to assure that all Chambers are apolitical, non-partisan, and are not to support any political candidates.

It looks like Ed's making Jim happy.

melchin poll continued...

The hilarious saga of Greg Melchin's website poll continues as the votes continue to rise this morning in a dramatic seesaw of shifts between 'excellent' and 'below average.' As of 12:11PM today there have been over 1200 more votes than yesterday morning (I'm betting it's only 2 or 3 people actually voting)...

Survey of the Month
How would you rate Premier Stelmach's first session?

Excellent 50.0%
Below Average 37.8%
Satisfactory 10.5%
Average 1.6%
Total Votes: 1395

UPDATE: 1:38PM... 1250 votes later...

Survey of the Month
How would you rate Premier Stelmach's first session?

Excellent 44.9%
Below Average 35.8%
Satisfactory 18.4%
Average 0.9%
Total Votes: 2645

the beauty of online polls.

The downside of putting up online polls on your website is that you don't always get the response you'd like. Take this poll from Calgary North West PC MLA Greg Melchin's website...

Survey of the Month
How would you rate Premier Stelmach's first session?

Below Average 87.2%
Average 8.1%
Satisfactory 3.5%
Excellent 1.2%
Total Votes: 86

Online polls. Easy to have fun with...

UPDATE! It's 3:40PM and it looks like Greg Melchin's Constituency Staff have been keeping themselves busy over the past couple hours...

Survey of the Month
How would you rate Premier Stelmach's first session?

Excellent - 62.7%
Satisfactory - 17.4%
Below Average - 16.2%
Average - 3.7%
Total Votes: 628

And I'm still trying to figure out what the difference is between 'Satisfactory' and 'Average.'

(Larry Johnsrude also picked up this up on his blog)

ANOTHER UPDATE: It's 7:29PM and it looks like a battle has begun on Greg Melchin's website poll between pro- and anti- Stelmachian forces...

Survey of the Month
How would you rate Premier Stelmach's first session?
Below Average 44.9%
Excellent 41.3%
Satisfactory 11.4%
Average 2.4%
Total Votes: 965

I bet you Greg Melchin's website has never received this much attention...

what is ed stelmach really up to?

The results of the latest daveberta poll are out:

When will the next Provincial General Election be called in Alberta?
Fall 2007 - 41% (53 votes)
Winter 2008 - 9% (12 votes)
Spring 2008 - 33% (43 votes)
Summer 2008 - 2% (2 votes)
Fall 2008 - 9% (12 votes)
Winter 2009 - 1% (1 vote)
Spring 2009 - 4% (5 votes)
Summer 2009 - 0% (0 votes)
Fall 2009 - 2% (2 votes)

This leads me to two specific theories that I have heard about when the next provincial election will be held...

Theory One: Spring 2008

Finance Minister Lyle Oberg has already set the date for the 2008 Alberta Budget for February 14, 2008. With Ed Stelmach's Tories having a very hard time gaining traction on the announcements they've made since December 2006, it wouldn't be surprising to see Stelmach attempt to pull a page from the 1997 Election playbook and drop the writ minutes after tabling the budget and run on the budget.

A Spring 2008 election would also give all the parties time to organize over the next five to six months.

Theory Two: Fall/Winter 2007

There are four points that lend support this theory:

a) The Stelmach Tories should be concerned about how much further they could fall in the polls by Spring 2008.

After 36 years of Tory government, Albertans moods and political attitudes are shifting. With the election of Craig Cheffins in the Calgary Elbow by-election in May 2007, Stelmach must be worried about growing support for Kevin Taft's Alberta Liberals in Calgary.

The Tories only need +42 of the 60 seats they already hold to form a majority government – and with there only being half a dozen opposition held ridings likely to be hotly competitive for the Tories it is not unimaginable that they will only mount strong campaigns in these ridings (including already nominated PC candidates in Edmonton Meadowlark, St. Albert, and Cardston-Taber-Warner).

The Tories may also need to concentrate on gaining seats in Edmonton and area in order to offset expected losses to the Alberta Liberals in Calgary.

b) Stelmach has lined up a number of high profile speaking engagements across Alberta in September and October (Premier's Dinners in Grande Prairie, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Red Deer, and Fort McMurray along with PC policy conferences in Edmonton and Calgary) to raise his profile.

c) A pre-campaign memo sent by the Tories to their constituency associations, MLA's, and members was widely distributed and made very public – which could be an attempt to throw off the opposition parties in their election timeline planning. The Stelmach Tories have also appointed a Campaign Manager (Randy Dawson) and Camapign Co-Chairs (Doug Goss and Douglas Black).

d) The Tory candidate nomination timeline requires all PC-incumbent ridings to have candidates nominated by October 31, 2007 and non-PC-incumbent ridings to have candidates nominated by November 30, 2007. These are deadlines, so it is possible that the Tories could have all their candidates nominated by the end of October, leaving enough time to avoid a Christmas election and call an election similar to 2004 (immediately following the October municipal elections).