Coming soon, my thoughts on the Federal Liberal leadership race..."Gerard Kennedy, one of eight Toronto-based candidates for the Liberal leadership, says he's willing to consider seeking a federal seat in western Canada. "I'm not closed-minded to that at all," the former Ontario education minister said in an interview."
"This is what I'm advocating as a sort of attitude for the party and the country. We need to be enterprising . . . and you don't get anything good to happen unless you take some risks." Read the rest here...
While running in the West would be risky, Kennedy cast himself as a risk taker. He is the only one of the 11 candidates who actually had to give up his current job to run for the leadership, a sacrifice he called "a pretty modest thing to do."
Monday, May 22, 2006
edmonton strathcona, please?
I really wasn't sure how I felt about this a couple of weeks ago, but as nic said, this takes guts...
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Edmonton Strathcona, a definite possibility. Kennedy is definitely got his pulse on where this party needs to go. He's got my vote for leader.
ReplyDeleteIf there's anything that can give Liberals in Alberta a jolt, it would be having the party leader run in Edmonton.
ReplyDeleteJust think of how energized the troops would be!
Strathcona would be riskier than almost any riding in the city.
ReplyDeleteUniversity students are a big liability.
Undergraduate students tend to be concentrated in the riding and tend to vote "where they're from" rather than where they live.
And unfortunately, the Liberal vote doesn't happen to be terribly high "where they're from".
If I had to pick one, Centre would be my choice.
Much of that part of the city has a strong(er) Liberal vote, federally and provincially. And the riding has a core with experience dealing with high profile candidates.
Gee since Nicole blogged about it, and you supported her campaign are you suggesting she is planning to run again, and thus Edmonton Calder is NOT up for grabs by Kennedy?
ReplyDeleteThe Liberal vote really tanked in Strathcona (and rightfully so) under the Hladyshevsky/Martin ticket this year, but Anne still posted respectable numbers in Edm-Centre. It wouldn't be much of a stretch to see someone like Gerard choosing Centre over Strathcona, even if the NDP + Liberal numbers in S'cona are compelling. That said... if Gerard actually ran in my neck of the woods, I can safely say that I'd vote for the Federal Liberals for the first time ever.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, a BC seat seems like a better fit to me....
ReplyDeleteIf you think Albertans, even in a lefty riding like Strathcona, are going to vote for a parachute candidate from Ontario, then you've just explained why the Liberal Party of Canada holds no seats in this provice.
ReplyDelete"Gee since Nicole blogged about it, and you supported her campaign are you suggesting she is planning to run again, and thus Edmonton Calder is NOT up for grabs by Kennedy?"
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure that sentence made any sense at all...
and it was more asking for Strathcona because it's my riding...
ReplyDeleteEugene - Edmonton Calder is a provincial riding. Nicole Martel ran in Edmonton East - a Federal riding.
ReplyDeleteThe Edmonton-Strathcona Liberal numbers didn't just tank this year, they've been in a slow decline over the past five elections. The only candidate who's come within ten points of beating Rahim since he was elected was Linda Duncan of the NDP in 2006. There's no way the Liberals would send a star candidate like Gerard Kennedy to an unwinnable riding.
ReplyDeleteSometimes star candidates win big in unwinnable ridings--think David Swann in Calgary-Mountain View:
ReplyDelete2001 results:
Mark Hlady (PC): 6,462 (60.3%)
Keith Purdy (NDP): 1,637 (15.3%)
Jennifer Spencer (LIB): 2,610 (24.4%)
2004 results:
John Donovan (NDP): 712 (5.3%)
Mark Hlady (PC): 4,088 (30.4%)
David Swann (LIB): 7,162 (53.3%)
Swann turned a 24-60 Liberal disadvantage into a 53-30 Liberal advantage right in the lion's den. Sometimes people just want to be represented by an impressive name.
Why on Earth would Kennedy run in one of the worst Edmonton ridings for the Liberals? Edmonton Centre and Edmonton East posted much better numbers. And given that his connection to Edmonton is the food bank, wouldn't he want to run in the riding it sits in?
ReplyDeleteIf that's the level of political strategy he brings to the table, Stephen Harper can rest easy.
If Kennedy were to run in Alberta - Edmonton Strathcona would be a natural riding for him to run in.
ReplyDeleteHe has a record of knocking out the dippers - taking Bob Rae's seat in York South in 1996, turning Parkland-High Park into his stronghold - a seat that is now federally NDP.
He's Jack Layton's nightmare.
He'd mop the dippers across the floor.
He has more street cred than either dreamy Rahim OR Linda Duncan could ever offer. He'd win in Strathcona.
ReplyDeleteI keep asking why Edmonton-Strathcona?
ReplyDeleteI guess Dave wants it because that's where he lives. But, other than that reason, it makes no sense to run here.
What the hell is "street cred" anonymous? Do you think the average person in the street of Edmonton-Strathcona knows who Gerrard Kennedy is?
Bluntly, I think that he should run in either Quebec or Ontario. It would be fairly easy to mount a campaign against him if he chose to just drop into Edmonton-Strathcona (and I would be right there helping it along!).
One of Nic's favourite themes is how Liberals can win in Alberta - it isn't about dropping big names into the province, it's about building policies that will resonate with voters. That's gotta be where it starts.
"I guess Dave wants it because that's where he lives"
ReplyDeleteMainly, yeah.
"how Liberals can win in Alberta - it isn't about dropping big names into the province, it's about building policies that will resonate with voters. That's gotta be where it starts."
Exactly. It's called earning votes.
I'm in Strathcona and I'd vote for Kennedy.
ReplyDeleteI voted NDP last time, but Layton has been a disappointment.
Though I'm sure there could be some seats in Edmonton that wouldn't be impossible for Kennedy to win in, I'd think he would run in his native province of Manitoba - maybe Winnipeg South - Reg Alcock's old seat? It was a close race and I would think that it could easily go Liberal again.
ReplyDeleteI assume if Kennedy runs in a western riding it will be Vancouver-Kingsway.
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry, but guts would be to say "I will be running in riding x." One should never get overstate a person's musings.
ReplyDeleteCommitments take guts, musings take calculations.
One of the key factors in ED-Strath is that both the Libs and NDPers run serious left wing candidates and thus split the anti-conservative vote. If you looked at a colour coded poll map you'd see three distinct regions.
ReplyDeleteIf the Libs had run a center right candidate rather than Deb, they might have had a shot. Had the NDPers not ran a radical like Malcolm, they might built a rep that said "MP in waiting".
After sponsorship, it just doesn't matter, for a while, the Libs are toast. It would take a Rahim centered corruption scandal to break the treadline here in the next election even with a Party leader running for the Libs. Some decent research would probably discover something.