With Lyle Oberg in his new role as the now reborn Defender of the Workers, it looks like more Tory MLA's are flocking to frontrunner and Tory dauphin Mr. James Dinning.Jim Dinning now has the support of 33 Alberta PC MLA's - Ministers Greg Melchin (Calgary North West), George VanderBurg (Whitecourt-Ste. Anne), and Ron Stevens, along with backbench Tory MLA's Janis Tarchuk (Banff-Cochrane), Doug Griffiths (Battle River-Wainwright), and Wayne Cao (Calgary Fort) are now endorsing Jim Dinning.
As much as some of my Tory friends would like to convince me otherwise, it's looking more and more like a complete and utter landslide for Jim Dinning in this race.
Here are the current Alberta PC MLA's endorsements in this race...
Total declared support:
Jim Dinning - 33 MLA's
Ed Stelmach - 7 MLA's
Mark Norris - 2 MLA's
Bob Cantwell - No Declared MLA Support
Alana DeLong - No Declared MLA Support
Victor Doerksen - No Declared MLA Support
Dave Hancock - No Declared MLA Support
Ted Morton - No Declared MLA Support
Lyle Oberg - No Declared MLA Support
Undeclared - 20 MLA's
Click here for the complete Alberta PC MLA endorsement listing...
Dave,
ReplyDeleteAs strong as Dinning looks, he is also vulnerable. If he doesn't win on first ballot (50% + 1) or at least have a very commanding lead, I don't believe he would get a lot of second ballot support. Certainly not from a number of the other leadership candidates, who have openly chastised him or his camp (Morton, Hancock, Norris). And he has not made friends with Oberg over the union membership sale fiasco - not that Oberg makes nice with anyone mind you. This is why Dinning has had to come on so strong so early. However, his "shock and awe" campaign launch in June did not have the intended effect - none of the other leading contenders (Morton, Stelmach, Hancock, Norris, Oberg) gave up.
With nine candidates (six of whom have already got the 500 signatures and $15,000 to be in it for real - there will be more), mathematically, it gets difficult for a Dinning first-ballot win. The polls only indicate name recognition. To put it bluntly, for those who choose not to participate in this race (and that is a valid choice, I won't argue with you there), it doesn't matter what they think as it concerns the PC leadership race. The next provincial election, yes, but we are not there yet. I understand that the Leger poll that was done recently had a very different picture of support if you looked at data for PC cardholders or those who said they would buy a membership (Dinning was still ahead, but not by nearly as much, and Oberg was way down the list of contenders).
Support of Tory MLA's isn't really that significant, other than for the public relations perspective.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, a significant majority of the PC Alberta caucus is to the left of the opinion and values of the majority of Albertans - still, if more candidates want to go to the left, that leaves more room on the right for Ted Morton! ;-)
"a significant majority of the PC Alberta caucus is to the left of the opinion and values of the majority of Albertans"
ReplyDeleteYou're joking, right?
Anyone who says that Jim Dinning is anything but an old party establishment candidate is on crack.
ReplyDeleteCan you say Paul Martin of Calgary...
ReplyDeleteWill - If Ted Morton can't even convince half of his collegues in the House that he's the best choice for their leader, how functional do you think a pre-election Ted Morton caucus would be? There would be at least over half the current cabinet that would be shut out - Kleinites and Dinningites.
I'm starting to think that the big curfufle scaremongering over Morton is nothing more than the other campaigns trying to scare their supporters into showing up and signing up others.
WillBlog is right. Much of the PC caucus has grown too centre-left for the most conservative province in the nation. Ted Morton is more conservative than much of the caucus, but he's more in line with most Albertans.
ReplyDeleteJim Dinning reminds me of Bob Dole.
ReplyDelete"Much of the PC caucus has grown too centre-left for the most conservative province in the nation."
ReplyDeleteThat 9% of the vote the Alberta Alliance got really highlighted what happens when the right wingers get disenchanted with the PC's.
I still don't understand why Ted Morton doesn't cross to the Alliance. I guess he'd have no chance of becoming Premier that way and taking on Confederation. Morton has no interest in really being Premier of Alberta, he wants to be a federal politician and he sees being Alberta Premier as the fastest way he can affect the federal scene.
A Ted Morton Premiership will only lead of a greater split in the conservative community - and will lead to the weakening of the PC Party.
Premier Ted Morton makes Premier Kevin Taft a not to far reality. Look what happend in Kansas when the right-wing evangelical Republicans ran their Mortonesq crazy candidate for Governor - Katherine Selibius and the Democrats took the state house and continue to hold it today.
This barely informed commenter, still drunk on turkey and stuffing, just wants to note that he doesn't think Dinning has no chance of picking up 2nd ballot support. Given a Dinning-Morton One-Two finish, I suspect the more moderate and lefty elements in the party, such as they exist, will do whatever they can to prevent Morton from winning. Hancock's people would (will?) almost certainly move to Dinning.
ReplyDeleteWhether that is enough to overcome a Morton-Oberg-Stelmach-Doerksen voting block is yet to be seen. And a lot will hinge on the week between the 1st and 2nd ballots... that is going to be a membership-selling gong show.
I realize that the main constituency on this list may be in disbelief to this fact, but it is true that the VAST majority of the PC Alberta caucus is to the left of the the policies and priorities of the average Albertan.
ReplyDeleteAlberta is a conservative province - their values and priorities are overwhelmingly geared towards a right-wing ideology.
Klein's personal popularity was not policy-based, it was personality-based. Jim Dinning does not have the same draw as Klein, and he is to the left of Premier Klein.
I assure you, ladies and gentlemen, Albertans are demanding a right-wing government, and I think people will be massively surprised come voting day in the leadership race.
Dave:
ReplyDeleteIt makes sense that Dinning would have support of 33 MLAs because the Tory government of the past ten years has become the government of review after review after review, with little real action. The Jim Dinning of 2006 is the personification of review: he wants to review health care, he wants to review the royalty and regulatory regimes, he wants to review tax policies, he wants to review a climate change plan that has already been developed in Alberta over the past four years.
He's become a walking contradiction from the Jim Dinning of 1993-1997. Just where has Rod stashed the old Jim Dinning? This new guy has become the Mr. Dithers of Alberta politics. And we all know what happened to Mr. Dithers, don't we.....
Today is... *drum roll please*...
ReplyDeleteYukon Election Day!!!
Woot! Todd Hardy for the win!
Go NDP Go! :D
Well, we've been assured by Will, so I guess that's done. There is no demand out there for a 'right-wing' government. Just a sensible one.
ReplyDelete